The Gap Sheet
Sunday, July 26
Our simulation and the market's price, side by side for every outcome we bank — ranked by EV, the value of a bet at the posted price. Gap is the raw probability disagreement in points. Figures are model output; the record is ungraded.
Pitcher props (K, outs, ER) are held out while their calibration is re-fit — they join the sheet when it lands. Hitters and game markets are complete.
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Setting the sheet…