We play every game 10,000 times before it starts. This page explains what you're looking at.
Almost everything on the site is a pair. Sim is what happened across our 10,000 simulations. Mkt or Book is what the sportsbook's price says, with the book's cut taken out so the two are on the same scale.
Most of the time they're close. The interesting part is when they aren't.
Every game gets a card. The big numbers in the middle are the average score across our sims.
Win % shows how often each team won in our sims, with the market's number right under it. Total compares our middle result (half the sims finished above it, half below) with the book's total.
When the gap is big enough to matter, it turns green. In baseball that's 2 points of win % or a full run on the total. In football it's 6 points of win % or 2.5 points on the total. Smaller gaps stay grey because they're mostly noise.
Tap a card to open it. You'll see who wins and by how much, how the combined score spreads out around the book's total, and the range each team usually scores in.
The bottom of the card says when the sim ran, and the odds on it were grabbed at that same moment. MLB runs every morning at 7 AM ET and again as lineups come out, and the card tells you whether they're confirmed yet.
Every prop the book posts, priced by the same sims. In MLB that's batter props. In the NFL it's passing, rushing, receiving, touchdowns and kicking.
Each card shows one side of the line, the one our sim likes more than the book does. Sim is how often that side hit in our sims, Book is what the price implies, and Last 10 is how many of the player's last 10 games cleared it.
The chip in the corner is the gap between our chance of the over and the book's, in percentage points. Green means we like the over more than the book does, red means we like the under more, and grey means we basically agree.
Tap a card for the full picture: the player's recent games against this line, how the 10,000 sims spread out, their averages, and a game log you can click through.
The filters narrow it down. Pick markets, positions (lineup spots in MLB) and games, or flip to Overs or Unders to see every prop on that side. Sim vs book only shows props where we're at least that far from the book. Sim chance only shows props where our sim gives that side at least that chance, whether the book agrees or not. Running backs, anytime TD, Overs, 50% gets you every back we think is a coin flip or better to score.
Once a game starts, its props drop to the bottom of the board.
No sims here, just what players actually did. Pick a market and a line, then a window: last 5, 10 or 20 games, or the season. You'll see each player's hit rate, their streak, how they do home and away, and what odds that hit rate would be worth, next to the book's price when there is one.
Tap a player for their full game log. Filter it down and the hit rate updates to match.
Every hitter in today's lineups gets a score from 0 to 100 for tonight, where 50 is league average. It comes from his power numbers and the pitcher he's facing.
Green stats help his case and red ones hurt it. If there are more columns than you need, the Columns button hides them and remembers your picks.
These numbers are a starting point, not a sure thing. Nobody is right every time.
Check the price at your own book. Lines move, and the ones on our cards are from when the sim ran.
21+. For fun only. If it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.