Proptics

Guide

Everything you need to get the most out of Proptics.

How Proptics Works

Proptics projects player performance using historical stats, matchup data, and situational factors. Those projections are converted into probabilities, then compared to sportsbook lines to measure the gap between what we expect and what the market is pricing. When that gap is large enough, we flag it as an edge.

Understanding Edges & Grades

Every projection is assigned a letter grade based on how large the edge is. The edge is measured in percentage points (pp) — the difference between the model's probability and the implied probability from the Vegas line.

A+≥20 pp— Strong edge, high confidence
A≥12 pp— Solid edge worth considering
B≥7 pp— Moderate edge
C≥4 pp— Small edge, use caution
PASS<4 pp— No significant edge detected

For example, if the model gives a player a 65% chance of going over 1.5 hits and the sportsbook line implies 50%, that's a 15 pp edge — an A grade.

Reading the Projections Table

The Projections page is the core of Proptics. Here's what each column means:

PlayerThe batter or pitcher name, along with their team abbreviation.
PropThe stat category — hits, home runs, strikeouts, RBIs, etc.
GradeThe letter grade reflecting edge strength (see above).
PickThe recommended side. “OVER 1.5” means the model favors the over at the 1.5 line.
ProjThe model's projected stat total for that player in this game.
EdgeThe percentage-point gap between model probability and implied Vegas probability.
OddsThe best available American odds from participating sportsbooks. The sportsbook logo shows which book is offering that line.
MatchupThe opposing pitcher (for batters) or opposing team (for pitchers), giving context for the projection.

How Projections Are Calculated

Projections start with a player's season-long per-game rates, then get adjusted for the specific context of each game:

  • •Opposing pitcher quality — ERA, K/9, WHIP, and other rate stats factor into how much a batter's baseline is adjusted up or down.
  • •Platoon advantage — Left-handed vs. right-handed splits affect contact rate, power, and strikeout probability.
  • •Head-to-head history — Past matchup performance between the batter and today's opposing pitcher.
  • •Recent form — Performance over the last 15 games to capture hot and cold streaks.
  • •Batting order position — Lineup slot influences plate appearance count and RBI opportunities.
  • •Park factors — Some ballparks suppress scoring while others inflate it. The model accounts for venue-specific effects.
  • •Weather conditions — Wind speed and direction, temperature, and humidity all affect ball flight, especially for home runs.

Pitcher projections use rate stats (K/9, BB/9, ERA) scaled by projected innings pitched for the game.

Cheat Sheets

Cheat Sheets are quick-reference cards updated daily. Each one focuses on a different angle:

Hot & Cold HittersShows the hottest and coldest bats over the last 5 games by batting average, hits, and home runs.
Top 15 HR PicksPlayers ranked by model home run probability, with the best available sportsbook odds for each.
HR Projections by TeamHome run projections grouped by team so you can quickly scan which lineups have the most power upside today.
Team StreaksCurrent win and loss streaks for all teams in action today. Useful for game-level and run-line context.
Park + Weather ImpactA combined park factor and weather score for each game, showing whether conditions favor hitters or pitchers.
Multi-Hit TargetsPlayers with the highest probability of recording 2 or more hits, useful for hit props and DFS.

Best Practices

  • •Always confirm lines on your preferred sportsbook before placing a bet. Lines move, and the odds shown here may have shifted.
  • •Edges are calculated from the best available line across participating books. The line at your specific book may differ, which changes the actual edge.
  • •Higher grades indicate stronger model confidence, but no bet is guaranteed. Variance is real, even with strong edges.
  • •Use the edge percentage as a guide, not an absolute. It reflects model conviction relative to the market, not a certainty.
  • •Track your results over time to evaluate the model's performance for the stat types and grade levels you follow.

Frequently Asked Questions

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