Every number on Proptics comes from the same place: each game, played 10,000 times before it happens. This page explains what goes in, when it runs, and what the outputs mean.
A simulation is a full game played out plate appearance by plate appearance. The model builds each matchup from the day’s lineups and starting pitchers, per-team bullpens, the ballpark, and the weather, then plays the game 10,000 times. The boards report what usually happened: how often each team won, how many runs were scored, and what every player in the lineup did.
Players are modeled from multiple seasons of data, weighted toward recent play and regressed toward the league where samples are thin, so a hot April doesn’t overwrite a career and a rookie isn’t treated like a veteran. Batter-versus-pitcher handedness, park effects by stat, and a home-field adjustment calibrated to league-wide rates all shape each plate appearance.
The slate fires at 7 AM Eastern every morning, using confirmed lineups where they exist and projected ones where they don’t. As first pitch approaches, each game re-simulates on a ladder and locks once its lineup is confirmed. The sportsbook odds shown beside a simulation are captured at the moment it runs — the model and the market are always a snapshot of the same instant.
Posted boards are immutable. A re-simulation replaces the old one visibly, with its own timestamp; nothing is quietly edited after the fact.
Because every simulation records what each player did, 10,000 runs of a game are also 10,000 stat lines for every batter in it. The props board reads a player’s distribution against each posted line — if a batter cleared 1.5 total bases in 4,400 of 10,000 runs, the model’s probability for the over is 44% — and shows the fair price that probability implies next to the book’s posted price.
Win probability. The share of the 10,000 simulations a team won. 62% means that team won 6,200 of the runs.
Projected total. The typical combined score across the simulations of a game.
Prop line. The number a sportsbook posts for a player stat — e.g. 1.5 total bases — that a bet goes over or under.
American odds. Prices written as +150 or −120. Negative numbers say how much you must risk to win $100; positive numbers say how much $100 wins.
Implied probability. The win rate a price corresponds to. −120 implies about 54.5%; +150 implies 40%.
Fair odds. The price that matches a probability exactly, with no bookmaker margin. If a rate is 60%, fair odds are −150.
Vig (juice). The bookmaker's margin, built into every posted price. It's why the implied probabilities of both sides of a line add up to more than 100%.
Expected value (EV). The average profit or loss a bet would produce if it could be repeated many times at the same price and true probability.
Hit rate. How often a player has cleared a given line over a window of games — 7 of the last 10 is a 70% hit rate.
ISO. Isolated power: slugging percentage minus batting average. Measures extra-base damage.
xwOBA. Expected weighted on-base average — a Statcast estimate of a hitter's production from quality of contact, stripped of batted-ball luck.
Barrel %. The share of batted balls hit at the exit-velocity/launch-angle combinations that most often become home runs.
Hard-hit %. The share of batted balls hit 95+ mph.
HR/FB. The share of fly balls that leave the park.
Yes. Every board — MLB games, props, trends, home runs, and the NFL and soccer boards — is free to use. An account is optional.
MLB is the primary sport, with simulations for every game all season. NFL boards launched for the 2026 season, and soccer boards covering the Premier League and La Liga launched in August 2026. More sports are planned.
Every MLB game is simulated at 7 AM Eastern each morning, then re-simulated on a ladder as first pitch approaches. Each game's board locks once its lineup is confirmed close to start time.
Posted sportsbook lines, collected through the morning and captured at the moment each simulation runs. Prop lines are frozen at first pitch, so the model and the market are always compared as they stood at the same time.
No. Proptics publishes model output — win probabilities, projected totals, and prop probabilities — not betting advice. It is for readers 21 and over.
No. Once a simulation is on the board it is never edited. A re-simulation replaces it visibly with a new timestamp; the odds shown always belong to the simulation they were captured with.